Provenance

Every admitted source is tagged with the method that produced today's value. Real publications carry weight 1.0; frequency-aligned upsamples 0.95; nowcasts 0.85; statistical-fidelity-gated synth 0.70. The composite GAI integrates each contribution at its calibrated weight.

Onboarding telemetry

Constellation

Each tile is a tracked index sized by its z-magnitude and shaded by regime. Click any tile to drill into the full chart.

Categories

Each category aggregates indices from one domain. These indices feed GAI, GAI-x, and GAI-y jointly — the same channels drive the headline reading and the two counterfactuals.

Publications & documents

Published papers

Selected peer-reviewed work by the founder. For the complete list, see steliosbekiros.com or Google Scholar.

• Publications
• AI, ML & Big Data
• Quantum Computing
• Econophysics & Chaos Resources
• Blockchain — Blueprint for a New Economy
• Algorithms & Programming

Cite this work

@misc{bekiros2026apocalypse,
  author       = {Bekiros, Stelios},
  title        = {{APOCALYPSE}: A Multi-Agent Forecasting System for the Global Apocalypse Index},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {APOCALYPSE Research Foundation},
  url          = {https://apocalypse-index.org},
  note         = {Daily publication; see white paper for methodology}
}

All donations support open research. Receipts available on request.

• General inquiries [email protected] Media, press, technical questions about the Index, dashboard issues, and general correspondence.
• APOCALYPSE Research Foundation [email protected] Institutional partnerships, research collaborations, grants, data-sharing agreements, and donor relations.
• Prof. Dr. Stelios Bekiros [email protected] Direct line to the founder for academic exchange, invited talks, and confidential matters.
• Personal site steliosbekiros.com
• ORCID 0000-0002-9376-8726
• Google Scholar Publications profile

About APOCALYPSE

APOCALYPSE is the original work of Prof. Dr. Stelios Bekiros. It is an independent, AI-driven planetary and human-system stress intelligence platform, combining evolutionary and genetic optimization, deep artificial neural networks, and big-data ingestion across thousands of public-data channels into a single calibrated readout.

The readout has three coupled dimensions:

• GAI — the headline Global Apocalypse Index: a calibrated, present-state estimate of global stress across the full multi-domain channel universe.
• GAI-x — the human-driven counterfactual: the same forward pass with cosmic / natural channels held at their calibration-window baseline, isolating the contribution of human-system activity to the stress reading.
• GAI-y — the cosmic-driven counterfactual: the mirror image, with human channels held at baseline, isolating the contribution of geophysical and space-weather drivers.

Together, GAI, GAI-x and GAI-y form a single readout — the headline level, the share attributable to human activity, and the share attributable to cosmic / natural drivers — rather than a single number in isolation. Each dimension is also published with a 7-day forward path.

How values get here

1. Rolling-window observations are gathered daily from every tracked source across the public-data universe.
2. Inputs are normalised, gap-filled, and reconciled into a unified state-vector at a shared cadence.
3. An ensemble of specialist neural agents trains and backtests on the rolling window under cross-validated supervision.
4. The trained model emits GAI as the calibrated forward pass on the full channel panel; GAI-x and GAI-y are derived from the same model by holding the cosmic and human channel groups respectively at their calibration-window baseline, so all three dimensions share one set of weights and one calibration.
5. Each daily candidate is evaluated against the previous canonical on a held-out validation slice. Promotion requires the candidate to clear four pre-registered gates (discrimination, calibration, false-alarm rate, anti-regression floor); otherwise the previous canonical is retained.
6. The dashboard publishes only when a fresh, gate-signed model-run manifest is present; if no signed manifest is available for the day, the previous day’s readout remains in place.

Editorial principles

• Transparency of inputs. Every tracked index links back to its publicly citable publisher.
• No single-factor dominance. The Index is composite by design.
• Calibration over hyperbole.
• Not financial advice.

Cadence

• Daily 12:00 GMT — full publication cycle.
• On-event — out-of-band refresh on large disturbances.

Copyright

© Stelios Bekiros — All Rights Reserved. The methodologies and internal models are proprietary.